Racial Change in the Nation's Largest Cities

Evidence from the 2000 Census
by
The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy
April 2001

Analysis of data from the 2000 Census by the Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy shows that non-Hispanic whites now represent less than half the population in the nation's largest central cities.

In 1990, non-Hispanic whites accounted for 52 percent of residents in the 100 largest cities; by 2000, their share of population had dropped to 44 percent in those same cities. At the same time, these cities gained 3.8 million Hispanic residents, an increase of 43 percent over 1990 levels. 1

The analysis reveals a number of important patterns underlying the increasing diversity in our nation's largest cities.

FINDINGS

I. Most Cities Lost White Population; About Half Are Majority Non-White

The nation's largest cities lost large numbers of white residents. Overall, the top 100 cities experienced a net reduction in non-Hispanic white population of 2.3 million people, or 8.5 percent. 2 The five largest cities alone lost nearly 1 million white residents. Between 1990 and 2000, the non-Hispanic white share of population in the top 100 cities fell from 52 percent to 44 percent.

Almost half of the largest cities no longer have majority white populations. In 1990, whites represented more than 50 percent of the population in 70 of the 100 largest cities. Among those same cities in 2000, whites were a majority in only 52. Table 1 lists cities that were majority white in 1990 but majority non-white in 2000, and the share of total population represented by whites in those cities in both years.

Table 1. 18 of the Top 100 Cities Went from Majority White to Majority Non-white Between 1990 and 2000

White population loss was widespread. Of the 100 largest cities in 1990, 71 lost at least 2 percent of their white populations over the decade. In 20 cities, white population loss exceeded 20 percent. Cities experiencing the largest declines included Detroit (53 percent), Birmingham , AL (40 percent) and Santa Ana , CA (38 percent). Cities with increasing white populations grew rapidly; cities with shrinking white populations grew slowly. The 20 cities that gained at least 2 percent white population grew by a combined 27 percent over the decade. The 71 cities that lost at least 2 percent of their white population grew by less than 6 percent overall. The link between a city's white population change and its total population change was much stronger than for other racial/ethnic groups.

II. Hispanic Population Grew Rapidly in Most Cities, Sustaining City Growth

Hispanic population in the top 100 cities grew dramatically. Between 1990 and 2000, the top 100 cities gained 3.8 million new Hispanic residents - an increase of 43 percent over 1990 levels. Ten Texas cities together gained about 1 million Hispanics - over a quarter of the total gain among all 100 cities.

Nearly every one of the largest cities gained Hispanic population. Among the 100 largest cities in 1990, only New Orleans lost significant Hispanic population over the decade. Hispanic populations in 32 cities more than doubled in size. Cities with the largest percentage gains included a number of Southeastern cities such as Charlotte (614%), Raleigh (557%), Nashville (456%) and Memphis (334%) that more than quadrupled their small Hispanic populations. Phoenix and Dallas each gained more than 200,000 new Hispanic residents. Table 2 lists the top 10 cities in terms of percentage gains in Hispanic population.

Table 2. Many Cities Experienced Exceptional Growth in Hispanic Population

The Hispanic share of population in the largest cities grew substantially. Between 1990 and 2000, Hispanic share of population in the largest 100 cities grew from 17 percent to 23 percent. The city with the largest gain in Hispanic share was Anaheim , CA , which was 31 percent Hispanic in 1990 and 47 percent Hispanic in 2000.

Many growing cities would have lost population if not for increases in Hispanic population. Of the 74 cities among the top 100 that grew by at least 2 percent during the 1990s, 19 would have lost population had they not gained the number of Hispanic residents they did. For instance, Chicago gained 208,000 Hispanic residents, but the city's overall population grew by only 112,000.

Table 3. 19 of the Top 100 Cities Would Have Lost Population Overall if Not for Gains in Hispanic Population

III. Asian and Black Populations Also Grew, But Black Growth Was More Uneven

Asian and black populations in the largest cities grew in the 1990s. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of Asians living in the largest 100 cities increased by 1,034,000 (38 percent); the number of blacks living in these cities increased by 816,000 (6 percent).

The shares of population represented by Asians and blacks in the largest cities were relatively stable in the 1990s. In 1990, the 100 largest cities were 24.7 percent black and 5.2 percent Asian; in 2000, these cities were 24.1 percent black and 6.6 percent Asian.

Growth in black population was uneven. While only two cities lost 2 percent or more of their Asian populations, 17 cities lost at least 2 percent of their black populations. Of these 17 cities, 7 were in California alone - Huntington Beach , Los Angeles , Oakland , San Diego , San Jose , San Francisco and Santa Ana .

Implications

Across all 100 cities considered, there was a consistent pattern of decreasing white population, rapidly growing Hispanic population, strong increases in Asian population and modest increases in black population. This pattern may have a number of implications for cities as they plan for the future:

Cities grow when all of their racial/ethnic populations grow. As noted above, cities with expanding white populations grew rapidly in the 1990s. The cities that really grew, however, attracted new residents from all racial/ethnic populations. In the 20 fastest-growing cities, white population rose 5 percent, black population rose 23 percent, Asian population rose 69 percent, and Hispanic population rose 72 percent. This suggests that cities hoping to achieve real growth need to provide a living environment that is attractive to families of varying race and ethnicity.

City services need to respond to an increasingly diverse population. The resident population served by city governments is changing rapidly in many cities. In Aurora , CO , for example, where one out of every 15 residents in 1990 was Hispanic, now one out of every five is Hispanic. Cities must consider how the structure and delivery of health care, public education and general city services should be adapted to the needs of changing populations.

Changing population composition affects the fiscal base of central cities. Census estimates from 1999 indicate that median annual household income for Hispanic households was more than $14,000 less than for non-Hispanic white households. Growing Hispanic population and shrinking white population may reduce average household income in cities. Growing population overall, however, could increase the total amount of income in cities. How these competing effects play out in a particular city may have significant implications for its fiscal base.

Changed city populations may change local politics. The changed racial/ethnic composition of many cities is likely to impact the types of issues and candidates that emerge in local elections. In Los Angeles , for example, where Hispanics grew from 40 to 47 percent of the population, and whites dropped from 37 to 30 percent of the population, the dynamics of the upcoming mayoral race will undoubtedly be much different than they would have been 10 years ago.

1. This analysis uses total population and race counts from the 1990 Census Summary Tape File 1 (STF-1) and the Census 2000 Redistricting Data Summary File (P.L. 94-171). The 1990 counts have not been adjusted to reflect geographic changes in central city definitions over the past decade. In a few cities, a portion of population change may be attributable to these geographic changes. However, these changes are unlikely to alter the underlying trends in the racial/ethnic composition of cities.

2. For the first time, the 2000 Census gave respondents the opportunity to classify themselves as being of more than one race. In the top 100 cities, 1.2 million non-Hispanic individuals, or 2.2 percent of all individuals, classified themselves as multiracial. Of these individuals, a number may have lived in the top 100 cities in 1990 and classified themselves as "white" in the 1990 Census. The implication of such reclassification is that the cities probably lost somewhat less than 2.3 million whites between 1990 and 2000. It is impossible to know the actual magnitude of this effect, although it is undoubtedly much smaller than the 2.3 million decline in white population noted in the text. At most, a minor portion of white population loss across all cities, and in each city that lost white population, is attributable to this phenomenon.

http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/es/urban/census/citygrowth.htm

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